November 24, 2025
This month, retailers are staring down the weakest holiday growth since 2018 while shoppers clutch their wallets like life preservers. October’s freight volumes just posted their worst performance since 2009, yet somehow rates still jumped 8%. Even cardboard boxes have economic anxiety (shipments are down 12% from peak).
But here’s where it gets interesting: Stanley Black & Decker managed to boost profitability after ditching China-based suppliers, and software exec Luke Robinson is out pitching a “Big Red Line” as the next fix for your last mile delivery.
You’ve got warehouses full of inventory and drivers on standby for peak season. Unfortunately, every major forecast points to holiday sales growth limping along at 2.5% to 3.6% this year, down from last year’s 4.2%. PwC expects shoppers to spend just $1,552 per person (down 5.3%), while Deloitte’s survey is reporting the bleakest economic outlook they’ve tracked since 1997.
Customers aren’t canceling Christmas, but they’re definitely downsizing it.
Adobe Analytics shows online sales creeping up just 5.3% to $253.4 billion (down from 8.7% last year), while Salesforce projects an even weaker 2.1% growth. Mastercard expects overall retail sales to inch up 3.6%, with in-store traffic growing a measly 2.3%. Translation: your retail partners won’t need emergency fleet expansions or round-the-clock deliveries when 77% of consumers expect higher prices and 57% fear economic decline.
The National Retail Federation still predicts sales will crack $1 trillion for the first time — $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion — but that milestone feels pretty hollow when EY-Parthenon confirms this 2.5% growth rate is the slowest since 2018.
Your biggest opportunity lies where others see disaster: retailers who suddenly care more about efficiency than sheer volume. Gen Z’s tightening up their purse strings, middle-income shoppers are leaning on credit cards, and the only group showing any optimism is Gen X.
The clear winners in this market are the businesses who offer flexible, cost-conscious delivery solutions that help retailers squeeze profit from smaller baskets and tighter margins.
Speaking of weak demand, October’s freight numbers just dropped harder than consumer confidence. Cass Information Systems’ shipments index cratered 4.3% from September and 7.8% year-over-year, marking the worst October performance since 2009. Volumes are evaporating while rates somehow jumped 8.2% higher year-over-year, leaving freight expenditures basically flat (down just 0.2%). And if seasonal patterns hold, November could easily see a 10% year-over-year drop in shipments.
LTL carriers are watching shippers consolidate smaller loads into full truckloads to dodge rising LTL prices, even as industrial and housing markets stay frozen. The Cass TL Linehaul Index climbed 3% year-over-year and 1.1% month-over-month, posting gains every single month of 2025 despite volumes tanking.
Carrier bankruptcies continue to stack up, top-tier fleets are operating at “generational lows” for margins, and equipment investments are getting slashed. Even private fleets are shrinking unit counts and creating a capacity crunch.
Supreme Court tariff rulings are hanging over the industry while pre-tariff activity is already fading, and spot rates are softening. Industrial and manufacturing sectors face “demand air pockets” that show no signs of filling, according to Cass. Contract load volumes remain well below prior years, and tender rejections show zero recovery momentum. Bottom line: you’re staring down a market where traditional freight networks can’t absorb this level of volatility, opening the door for flexible last mile solutions that can sidestep the mayhem.
The folding carton market just caught a nasty case of economic uncertainty, and your packaging costs might catch a fever next. After riding high on pandemic demand, carton shipments plummeted 4.8% across 2023 and 2024, with overall demand cratering 12.2% since the 2007 peak — all thanks to a toxic cocktail of tariffs, inflation, and declining consumer confidence.
The folding carton industry partied hard during COVID’s early days, with shipments soaring 11.6% between 2019 and 2022 as everyone hoarded everything from cereal to sneakers. That restocking bonanza felt great — until reality crashed the party. Consumers pivoted back to services, inflation tightened wallets, and suddenly those cardboard boxes started piling up in warehouses instead of flying off production lines. The Paperboard Packaging Council’s latest report paints a picture that’ll make any supply chain manager reach for the antacids: continued slowdown through 2025 before any real recovery.
Expect continued headwinds through 2025, with SNAP benefit cuts and stricter immigration policies further dampening demand. But 2026 brings relief — the PPC projects shipments will finally start climbing again, with 0.8% average annual growth from 2024 to 2029. Potential tax benefits from upcoming legislation could restore predictability, giving both you and your customers room to plan. Smart money says lock in contracts now while suppliers remain eager for stable partnerships.
Stanley Black & Decker hit a 31.6% adjusted gross margin last quarter, while most companies are still complaining about tariffs. The toolmaker that stocks every job site in America ditched Chinese suppliers — somehow turning that massive headache into higher profits. Your own supply chain could learn a thing or two from their moves.
Stanley Black & Decker watches its China dependency like a hawk. Today, 15% of U.S. supply comes from China, but they plan to drop that below 10% by mid-2026 and under 5% by late 2026. Mexico now produces the cordless tools that end up on job sites nationwide, helping the company chase a 35% adjusted gross margin target (they expect 33% ± 50bps this quarter). CFO Patrick Hallinan aims to eliminate $200–$300 million in tariff costs via geographic shifts and tighter USMCA compliance. Their $2 billion cost-reduction program dedicates $1.5 billion specifically to supply chain improvements — because that’s where the real money hides.
Stanley raised prices twice since April, and nobody stopped buying their tools. Production expenses exceeded targets and cost them 10 cents per share, while outdoor products revenue dropped 3% as distributors dealt with overstuffed warehouses. CEO Christopher Nelson expects inventory to normalize before 2026 preseason orders roll in, but the reality is clear: every job site and industrial supply chain is paying more today so Stanley can escape China tomorrow. The math works if you have the guts to stick it out.
Luke Robinson from Aptean (a $700 million software company that bought routing specialist Paragon in 2020 and carrier management firm 3T two years later) splits last mile logistics at what he calls the Big Red Line: Plan on the left, execute on the right. Most companies, unfortunately, bleed cash on both sides.
The left side of the red line covers all pre-delivery planning. Most companies still rely on veteran employees who have memorized driver preferences, reverse routes, and security codes. With algorithmic approaches, though, you can process these variables differently. Time windows, incompatible aggregate loads, and hundreds of other constraints are factored into optimized routes. The results are clear: fleets run more efficiently, fuel costs drop, and planning time shrinks from full days to as little as 20 minutes.
The right side focuses on delivery-day execution and visibility. Modern customers expect two-hour windows, hourly tracking updates, and professional installation services — even down to details like plastic shoe covers. Industrial buyers demand similar precision for factory shipments. Electronic proof of delivery (ePOD) and fulfillment (ePOF) provide digital confirmation and signatures, eliminating paperwork while keeping all parties informed through automated alerts. This visibility cuts customer service calls significantly — each of which carries hidden costs in staff time and administration.
While retailers face sluggish holidays, freight volumes crater, and Stanley rewrites the nearshoring playbook, the real breakthrough happens where middle mile delivery meets last mile execution — that Big Red Line where planning becomes reality and most supply chains still hemorrhage cash.
FRAYT comes into play with a network of 45,000+ professional drivers across 150+ markets, providing dependable service without drama or premium pricing:
From the middle mile to the last mile, we will be with you every step of the way. Sign up with FRAYT now and watch your supply chain transform from good to great.
